I rode right up to Laverne’s booth, one of my favorites to visit. I smiled and greeted her as well as the two older men sitting on a nearby bench. When the men saw me on my bicycle, they shook their heads and started castigating me in the way that’s become all too familiar: “You’re riding by yourself? Aren’t you scared?”
Sigh…
Trying to be good natured yet assertive, I responded, “I refuse to live my life in fear. And I’m a lot more scared of lying on the sofa eating bonbons.”
I’ve had lots of similar exchanges, usually with older folks, but on Saturday it really stuck in my craw. I’m very careful when I ride, and I don’t take unnecessary risks – not that I should have to explain myself to others who feel like they can stick their nose in my business. I’ll bet they wouldn’t say the same things to a man. In addition, most people do a very poor job of assessing risk.
The more I thought about all of this as I rode, the angrier I got. I just let myself be angry. For about five minutes, I pedaled hard and said out loud all the things that made me mad. It was quite therapeutic.
Since this past Saturday, I’ve thought more about risk from a quantifiable standpoint. Earlier in my career I did some environmental risk assessment regarding contaminants in groundwater and surface water. The Environmental Protection Agency has standard procedures for conducting risk assessments. These procedures are based on certain assumptions. For example, if you’re assessing the risk of a particular contaminant via skin exposure, you assume that a homeowner lives in the same location for 30 years and swims daily in the adjacent creek. Some of the assumptions might not match reality, but risk assessments are based on worst-case scenarios.
A given contaminant has a maximum contaminant level (MCL). MCLs usually have an order of magnitude of parts per million (ppm). If a contaminant is present at a concentration greater than the MCL, it may cause adverse health effects, e.g., a statistically significant increase in cancer. “Statistically significant” means that an event is caused by something other than random chance. Not that I would want to live next to a landfill that is leaching contaminants into the groundwater beneath my house, but it’s kind of sobering to compare ppm levels of contamination to the raw sewage that some people drink from and bathe in in other parts of the world.
I decided to look online for a reliable source of risk data for various activities and found the National Safety Council (NSC). One of the most notable examples of a skewed perception of risk is someone who is afraid to fly but thinks nothing of riding in a car every day. According to the NSC’s Health Statistics-Mortality Data for 2013 (the most recent year available on their website), the lifetime odds of dying from a motor vehicle crash are 1 in 113 while the lifetime odds of dying from air and space transport incidents is 1 in 9,737. Also, my assertion that I’m more scared of lying on the sofa eating bonbons is right on target; the greatest risk of death is from heart disease and cancer (which are primarily lifestyle dependent), 1 in 7 odds over a lifetime. Here’s the entire 2013 website list of selected causes of death:
Whoa – the risk of choking from inhalation and ingestion of food is greater than the risk of a pedacyclist incident. Guess I’d better quit eating.
2016 risk statistics are available, but you have to buy the entire Injury Facts book from the NSC. It costs over $100. I’d rather buy a dozen inner tubes or a bunch of Skratch Labs electrolyte mix for that amount. Still, I did find some interesting 2002 risk statistics online that are attributed to the National Safety Council. (Note that the table above shows the lifetime odds of dying from a given cause, but the table below shows the risk of dying from a given cause next year; it’s always important to know the timeframe when considering risk data.) Here are a few 2002 risk statistics:
Pedestrian 1
in 47,273
Pedal cyclist 1
in 375,412
Motorcycle rider 1
in 89,562
Car occupant 1
in 17,625
(Cycling is the safest mode of transportation among the four!)
Falls Risk
of Dying Next Year
Tripping/slipping at same level 1 in 445,729
Falling from bed, chair, or
furniture 1 in 366, 804
Falling from stairs or steps 1 in 180,188
Falling from ladder or
scaffolding 1 in 709,215
Falling out of a building 1
in 516,950
Complications by medical and
surgical care 1 in 101,281
Various medicaments and
biologics 1 in
41,828
Anti-epileptic, sedative-hypnotic,
etc. 1 in 281,193
Overexertion, travel and
privation 1 in
2,249,541
All workers 1
in 28,571
Agricultural workers 1
in 3,425
Mining 1
in 3,534
Professional & business
services 1
in 34,483
Financial activities 1
in 142,858
Yes, there is inherent risk in cycling, but there's risk in getting out of bed every day. I'm going to take the advice of my old friend Bugs Bunny:
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